Larry Summers and Ed Glaeser have teamed up with Benjamin Austin to tell us all what ails employment prospects in certain parts of America. The end result of their musings is that there should be a Federal policy to do something about it. Yet the actual logical outcome of said musings is that we should use federalism to solve this. That is, the Federal part of government should butt out of this problem.
But then, you know, that’s true of so much of modern governance. It’s just nice to see it quite so obviously here:
While the whole country is experiencing this decline in male work rates, Austin, Glaeser, and Summers argue that the trend is geographically concentrated (as shown in the maps above, showing male joblessness in 1980 versus 2015) and that this justifies policies specifically targeting areas that are hardest hit. In particular, they argue that subsidies meant to encourage work, such as an expanded earned income tax credit, should perhaps be changed to be more generous for recipients in struggling regions, where they might do more to encourage additional employment and reduce joblessness.
Well, OK. My own solution for this sort of problem would be rather more like the sort of thing Ed Glaeser has been suggesting elsewhere. Tear down the restrictions that stop people moving to the coastal cities – both zoning and licensure – and deal with the problem that way. If that means depopulation of parts of the heartland then so be it. This is something which is happening in many parts of the rich world and it’s something we’d better get used to.
OK, not politically acceptable when such heartlands have congresscritters but still.
America’s regional disparities are large and regional convergence has declined if not disappeared. This wildly uneven economic landscape calls for a new look at spatially targeted policies. There are three plausible justifications for place-based policies–agglomeration economies, spatial equity and larger marginal returns to targeting social distress in high distress areas. The second justification is stronger than the first and the third justification is stronger than the second. The enormous social costs of non-employment suggests that fighting long-term joblessness is more important than fighting income inequality. Stronger tools, such as spatially targeted employment credits, may be needed in West Virginia than in San Francisco.
Again, my solution would be to move the people. Or more accurately, to remove the barriers to the people moving themselves. Yes, I’ve walked this walk, I’ve worked on two continents, in 6 countries and several different locations in two of those countries. Still, that’s not what they recommend:
We document that increases in labor demand appear to
have greater impacts on employment in areas where not working has been historically high,
suggesting that subsidizing employment in such places could particularly reduce the not working
rate. Pro-employment policies, such as a ramped up Earned Income Tax Credit, that are targeted
towards regions with more elastic employment responses, however financed, could plausibly
reduce suffering and materially improve economic performance.
Yes, there are state level EITCs but it’s really a Federal program. Which is why it’s the wrong solution here.
The very analysis insists that this is a local problem. The solution to a local problem is going to be found locally, not nationally. Thus we don’t want even an attempt at a Federal solution we want a federalist one. Another way to say the same thing is that certain states, or areas within them, have economic problems. Our solution is for those states, or the areas within them, to change their economic ways therefore.
Which was all rather the point of the way the Founding Fathers set the place up. That Federal Government should only be dealing with the national things which have to be dealt with at the national level. States with things at the State level, counties with county level and so on. The entire point was the realisation that the tax leeches in DC aren’t going to know how to deal with unemployment in Squirrel Hollow, WV but that the folks in the county seat might have a clue. DC might even be able to think through matters like national aggregate demand (although Hayek didn’t think so) but not the specific problems of 600 Scots Irish crouching among the rubble of mountaintop removal coal extraction.
It’s being defined as a local problem therefore the solution must be local – the Feds should butt out. Unlike the recommendations of the paper which is something of a pity.