The Great Brexit Schools Disaster

Apparently the education system is going to fall apart the moment that we’re not led on the international stage by Ursulie von der Lyin’:

Schools may have to close, exams could be disrupted and fresh food for pupils’ meals could run short because of panic buying with prices soaring by up to 20%, according to a secret Department for Education analysis of the risks of a no-deal Brexit obtained by the Observer. The five-page document – marked “Official Sensitive” and with the instruction “Do Not Circulate” – also raises the possibility of teacher absences caused by travel disruption, citing schools in Kent as particularly at risk.

Well, yes. It is possible to read between the lines here. What is actually being warned about is that maybe that M20 will become a lorry park – it won’t, because people think – and therefore teachers in Dover might find it difficult to get to work.

On such distinctions between truth and propaganda is Project Fear built.

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Quentin Vole
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Quentin Vole

It’s obvious that none of the journos and twitter denizens discussing this has ever written a risk assessment. You have to consider things that could (conceivably) happen, not just those you consider probable.

thammond
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thammond

Yes, I once sat on the Risk Committee of a FTSE100 company. Our job was to think about all the risks that could possibly befall the business and then what, if anything, we should do about them. It was a very long list, but thankfully 99.9% never happened.

starfish
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starfish

Agreed, you have to balance probability and impact

Low impact events may be quite likely, they are easy to mitigate

High impact events with low probability might be a risk not treating

High impact/high probability are the ones that put you out of business

Any business that has not activly prepared for all kinds of Brexit eventualities does not deserve to be in business

Rhoda Klapp
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Rhoda Klapp

This pretty much falls into the category of ‘too good to check’. What kind of story would it make if there was a reasonable refutation of these claims?

Jonathan Harston
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Jonathan Harston

All these dire predictions are predicated on the assumption that the government will maliciously destroy trade flows. This government can’t even competantly reform the benefits system, how on earth are the complainants so confidant that it will be competant enough to blocade all our *own* ports and destroy every means of transporting goods?

Jonathan Harston
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Jonathan Harston

The M20 will only come a lorry park if *CALAIS* refuses to admit traffic. If Dover refuses to admit traffic and kills off our imports, it will be *FRANCE* that becomes the lorry park. The symptom of blackages on the M20 is evidence of ****FRANCE**** being morons, not the UK.