There’s No Time Left For Anything Other Than No Deal Brexit

For connoisseurs of political machinations there’s really nothing quite like the Brexit process. For as we enter the end game here it’s becoming ever more apparent that there’s no actual time left for anything other than a no deal Brexit. Which isn’t at all what those who have been planning and plotting were intending, not at all. But it is what they’ve managed to corner themselves into.

Take this latest from Theresa May:

MPs will be able to have a final vote on the Brexit deal by 12 March, Prime Minister Theresa May has said. Speaking as she travelled to an EU-Arab League summit in Egypt, Mrs May ruled out holding a so-called “meaningful vote” on her deal this week. But she said “positive” talks with the EU were “still ongoing” and leaving on 29 March was “within our grasp”. Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer said delaying the vote was “the height of irresponsibility”. And the European Parliament’s Brexit co-ordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, accused Mrs May of “kicking the can down the road”. He said the delay would cause “crippling uncertainty” and was “one of the most reckless” decisions he had seen in politics.

So, think this through. The vote is going to be on May’s deal. She doesn’t think she’ll win the vote as yet, so she’s delaying it. Fair enough, she’s the PM, she controls the Commons timetable.

But what happens if that deal is voted down? That being what she’s relying upon of course. Get that late and it’s either her deal or no deal. For again, think this through. We leave on March 29.

What’s that? But obviously no one wants that? Well, OK, there are a few like me looking forward to it but OK, near all in politics don’t want that. So, what are they going to do about it?

After Gina Miller and all the rest have fought their court cases, passed motions and had votes, we have a situation where we need a majority in favour of whatever is to happen. If we don’t have a majority in favour of something then we default to the, well, the default. And as it currently is that default is leaving on March 29 with no deal.

No, really, we need a majority to vote for something else for something else to happen. A vote of 650 to none against no deal doesn’t cut it. We must have the positive vote in favour of whatever.

And there’s simply no whatever that does gain a majority in the Commons. Thus a likely outcome is that leave with no deal.

Yes, sure, this pleases me. But here’s what is necessary for it not to happen. So, what deal is it that will gain a majority? Anyone? Bueller?

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Chester DrawsQuentin VoleDodgy Geezerdiscoveredjoyschiguy31 Recent comment authors
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Rhoda Klapp
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Rhoda Klapp

I’ve speculated elsewhere but probably not here, that the WTO option is what both sides are aiming for. It is not going to be a disaster, the UK won’t be trapped into things the electorate didn’t vote for, the EU will achieve its ambition to do nothing to favour the UK (and thus encourage the others) but also will suffer no disaster. Nobody will really mind, as each can blame the other. Honour is satisfied, the project can continue, the UK will be free. May has successfully run down the clock. The opposition (the remainers and closet remainers) won’t have… Read more »

Quentin Vole
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Quentin Vole

Wonder how long it will take for the whingers to shut up and get on with it?

Decades, probably. There will be a long period during which anything negative that happens (including earthquakes) will be #BecauseBrexit, and anything positive will be #DespiteBrexit. After all, the BBC has been doing this for 30 months already, with no sign of running out of steam.

Pat
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Pat

Fingers crossed.
I’ve for some time been wondering what would have been done differently if the object was to get a no deal Brexit past a remain Parliament and a remain civil service – and apparently garner public support for the same.

chiguy31
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chiguy31

I have infinite faith in the politicians’ ability to break contracts, precedent, faith with the voters, and their own promises.

I also have enormous faith in their ability (as a group) to weasel out of tight spots.

They fear Brexit (or better said, they have no confidence in the English voter, the economic survival ability of Britain, or lesse faire economics).

discoveredjoys
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discoveredjoys

Last week I was convinced that May was angling to get us into a customs union with the rEU, using the Withdrawal Agreement as a bridge. I wonder if she has given up on using the WA, realising that she can’t get it through parliament without unacceptable penalties.

So, if she has decided to go WTO Deal, look out for shennanigans over the Free Trade Agreement that she will manoeuver into a customs union before she resigns or the next General Election, whichever comes first.

Dodgy Geezer
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Dodgy Geezer

“…….there’s no actual time left for anything other than a no deal Brexit. Which isn’t at all what those who have been planning and plotting were intending, not at all……..” Er….I suspect that they WERE planning this. Because the options are: 1 – stay in the EU (which the Leavers won’t agree to) 2 – leave the EU (which the Remainers won’t agree to, and which Brussels doesn’t want) 3 – kick the can down the road by extending the date of leaving (which can be sold as both Leaving AND Remaining). Brussels will be very happy to agree to… Read more »

Frederick Davies
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Frederick Davies

Is that strictly true? Wouldn’t there be a majority for delaying? Not that I want that, but for all their desire to betray the electorate, the Remoaners are not that stupid to let May run the clock down without doing something.
FD

Chester Draws
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Chester Draws

Speaking as she travelled to an EU-Arab League summit in Egypt,

That’s funny.

There’s a political crisis in Britain, and she’s off to a summit with minor trading parties on behalf of a group she’s leaving.

You get the sense that she’s running out of time because she’s wasting her time.