The Map That Should Scare The Faeces Out Of Remainers

From The Times, the map that should scare the bejabbers out of Remoaners and other assorted Federasts:

Scary, eh?

Take out the porridge wogs and the lavabreads and, well, it doesn’t look pretty for those in the traditional parties, does it? Yes, of course, it’s a fractured field. Part of that light blue everywhere is that there was no one remain option.

It’s also true that this won’t translate directly onto Westminster seats:

He said the Brexit Party would be heading “en masse” to Peterborough and would then begin interviewing and vetting candidates for all 650 seats for the next general election. “I think the real barrier, the real obstruction to all of this is a two-party system that may well have worked in decades gone by but is no longer fit for purpose,” he said. The newly re-elected MEP said the Tories were “bitterly divided” and he considered it “extremely unlikely that they will pick a leader who is able to take us out on the 31st October come what may”.

And yet if you’re on one of those traditional parties you should be scared shitless observing that map. For, yes, it’s a fractured race again. And how it’s going to turn out with three – perhaps four if we include the Lib Dems – major national parties vying is entirely unknown. There are vast numbers of seats where a 32% vote will win if it’s being fought by those four parties seriously.

No, I don’t predict a Brexit Party majority in a GE. But forecasting who would get one looks impossible to me. Which if you’re part of the established order should scare.

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Quentin VoleJonathan HarstonDavidsbLeo SavanttMatt Ryan Recent comment authors
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Pat
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Pat

My takeaway from the election. 35% wanted leave above all else. 3.5% wanted remain above all else. The remainder had other priorities so their in/ out preference is less strongly held, and not easily determined. After all some people must have voted Green or Libdem or SNP despite those parties ‘ stance on in/out, being motivated by other policies on
offer.

Dodgy Geezer
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Dodgy Geezer

The interesting point for me is that turnout was lower in the Leave areas than the Remain areas. Which suggests that Remain/Leave is the key political issue of the day, and that the Remainers saw the EU elections as their major chance for a second referendum. Anecdotal evidence – I know a couple of staunch Conservative Remain voters who voted Liberal in the last election – AFAICT their driving force was hatred of Farage for being anti-establishment. So this was a major Remain push, up against a rather more relaxed Leave contingent who didn’t seem to feel the same pressure… Read more »

Climan
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Climan

Possibly the majority of Greens voted that way because of the relentless, daily diet of environmental Project Fear propaganda, in effect a daily free party political broadcast on behalf of the green party.

Matt Ryan
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Matt Ryan

Just one item from these idiots manifesto – Abolish the cruel and unfair bedroom tax. So, young couple (I know, probably not, but for the sake of argument) get larger council house when they have kids, kids eventually grow up and leave home so the couple now have spare room they don’t need (apart from made up reasons about a room for the dog etc). Next young couple need a larger house for their sprogs – so what happens? We can’t move (downsize) the older couple because that’s their house so maybe we concrete over some green space to build… Read more »

Jonathan Harston
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Jonathan Harston

The Liberals support Leave, don’t tar them with the LibDem brush.

Quentin Vole
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Quentin Vole

a rather more relaxed Leave contingent who didn’t seem to feel the same pressure to vote

Leave voters will mostly feel that voting to elect members of a pointless talking-shop is not a high priority for them, particularly since their last vote on the subject has been so clearly ignored.

Matt Ryan
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Matt Ryan

Apparently this means we don’t want a no-deal Brexit.

Climan
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Climan

A big danger for the Brexit Party is when they have to define policies, expect much infighting, and you can be sure that the BBC and others will use this line of attack. My advice: DON’T DO A MANIFESTO, legitimate for a party that will not (yet) lead a government.

Leo Savantt
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Leo Savantt

Try as one might it seems impossible to get an accurate estimate of the number of EU nationals who voted last week or indeed the total number who are eligible to do so. Perhaps Baron Ashcroft can oblige. Until then if we assume that they voted in large numbers (and not for The Brexit Party), the result then is more pro-EU than would be the case with the GE constituency. If they followed the general trend of not bothering to turnout their impact, or lack of it, might not have made a difference. Were EU nationals a significant factor last… Read more »

Davidsb
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Davidsb

The number of 4 million UK-resident EU27 nationals has been suggested. Mr Gove has just proposed allowing some 3 million EU27 nationals who have resided in the UK for over 5 years to obtain UK citizenship at nil cost to themselves and 100% cost to UK taxpayers. Presumably he has some official support for his 3 million estimate, so if short-term residents are added, 4 million does not seem unreasonable. I would assume that (a) those who registered for a UK vote are more motivated to actually vote than the average UK citizen, and (b) they would include a substantial… Read more »

Jonathan Harston
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Jonathan Harston

My first estimate from the ONS data is that in 2015, 4.39% of the UK population were non-UK EU citizens, 2.9m out of 65.6m. Now, that includes children, so more detail is needed to get the proportion of adults.

Jonathan Harston
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Jonathan Harston

Here we are, ONS stats:

In 2017, 3,666,000 UK residents were non-UK EU citizens.
Of those, 12% were children, so 3,226,080 were adults with voting rights.

In 2017, the UK Parliamentary electorate was 46,800,000, this being UK electors who are not non-UK EU citizens.

So, in 2017 the total UK electorate was 50,066,080
So, in 2017, 6.4% of the UK electorate were non-UK EU citizens.

Quentin Vole
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Quentin Vole

It’s Laverbread*, you sais!

*Unless you make yours from pumice 🙂