An interesting little question here about who will be saying what after the euro-elections. For we all know damn well that if the LibDems, the arch-remainers, won the election then that would be touted as absolute proof that we should call the whole Brexit thing off.
So, given that it looks like the Brexit Party is going to gain a majority of the seats – not just a plurality – what are people going to be saying?
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]European elections latest polls: Brexit Party forecast to win majority of UK seats[/perfectpullquote]Hmm, well, I think we know, don’t we?
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]The Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK – all backers of a second referendum – collectively have support of 28 per cent of the public, against no-dealers Ukip and the Brexit Party’s collective 34 per cent.[/perfectpullquote]Yes, we do know what Remoan will say. That’s the wrong answer so we’ll have to have another vote and will keep doing so until you damn peasants provide the right one.
No?
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If the Lib-Dems get their way they will be sitting in the EP for a full term. But their leaflet admits to no such plan. The one I got has stuff about Westminster and stuff about locals, but nothing about what they plan to do in the EP. And come to think of it no euro leaflet ever has treated the euros as anything other than a free vote on national or local issues. Nor does the MSM coverage. One might think remainers would take the stupid vote seriously. But no, weirdly, our membership is a national issue. What happens in the EU never arises. It hasn't in the referendum campaign or the three years since. Basically, we are not interested in the EU except as an irritant. That's one reason why we shouldn't be in it.
There is not much that they can say in any detail about what they will do in the EP, MEPs have no significant impact on policy in the EU and therefore little real work. I worked in one of the Commissions for a number of years in a policy making role, I don't recall ever referring to or considering the EP once.
Today's YouGov poll has Labour in third place on 15% behind the Lib Dems on 16%, The Brexity Party on 35%. It is feasible that a low turnout by demoralised remainers and enthusiastic voting by leavers could push the final outcome even more in favour of The Brexit Party.
Will it make remainers change their rhetoric? Probably not.
(The ill-named Cuks are on 2%.)
I've been arguing that if LDM+GRN+NAT get over 50%, then that is a mandate for immediate revocation of Article 50, no referendum, whipped through, no dissent. Similarly, if BXP+UKP get over 50%, then that is a mandate for immediate revocation of the Europe Act, no referendum, whipped through, no dissent.
The problem comes if one side gets the most votes/seats without going over 50%. Team Brexit will argue that the LAB+CON vote adds to their vote, but large parts of LAB+CON will argue that their vote endorse some other sort of Brexit, a rethink, or even a revocation. Team Remain will also argue that LAB+CON adds to their vote. Not being partisan, but the vote needs LAB+CON to be as small as possible and concentrated on Hard Leave vs Hard Remain.