Yes, yes, yes, obviously. A small sample size, no population weighting and all that. Further, the denizens of ARRSE are unlikely to be the sort of shrinking violets attracted by the tendresse of the European ideal. Rather too many of the hard men willing to do violence on our behalf among the readership there for that to be true.
And yet it’s also true that actual vote tallies – even, how people said they voted rather than people telling us how they will vote – is a more accurate guide than anything else we’ve got other than the actual vote count itself. At which point we do have something interesting:
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]The Brexit Party Votes: 46 82.1%[/perfectpullquote]Only the Greens, LibDems and Ukip have any other votes at all.
There is some expectations management going on from the Tories at present. Mutterings from within the party that they might only get 10% of the vote. They’re not trying, there’s no manifesto etc. Managing down what we think they might get in order to make it less of a shock when they don’t get.
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Another Conservative source said internal data showed the party could do worse than the Brexit party, Labour, the Lib Dems, Change UK and even potentially the Greens, with support at less than 10%.[/perfectpullquote]And back to ARRSE:
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Given the parties in the running and my contempt for the big three, I might vote Brexit Party or just shit on my ballot paper. Not sure which one yet.[/perfectpullquote]And:
V[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””] oted Brexit Party. And sent them a few £. Got a Tory leaflet in the post today. It says: ‘The only party which can get Brexit done is the Conservative Party’ Bastard liars. They really think we are stupid. [/perfectpullquote]
These election results are going to be really, really, fun aren’t they? For 10% for the Tories might be looking excessively hopeful.
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Change UK is likely to get a few more votes than they deserve, as by hook or by crook they have ended up at the top of what is a long and somewhat confusing list of parties on the ballot paper. I've seen a postal ballot paper.
The Brexit Party is now so respectable that the EU may actually benefit from having some of them as MEPs, sadly.
They missed a trick by being The Brexit Party instead of just Brexit Party which would have put them at the top of the ballot paper
I've joined the Brexit Party as a supporter. £25. I've offered to deliver leaflets. I strongly urge all who care about UK democracy to join.
Have you see the nonsense of the London ballot paper on Wikipedia? Seven Extinctionists misunderstood the rules, so appear as seven seperate independents.