A Clean Brexit Or A £200 Billion Bill For The Eurozone Failure

This is more than just politically minded scaremongering from partisan types. This is an actual and real possibility. If the eurozone falls over then Britain could be stuck with a vast, £200 billion-style, bill for the clean up. This is because, although we’re not members of the eurozone as members of the EU we’ve a part in guaranteeing various of the debts existing under the eurozone scheme.

The problem with this being firstly that contingent liability, of course.…

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Brexit Party Currently Running At 82% Of Votes Cast

Yes, yes, yes, obviously. A small sample size, no population weighting and all that. Further, the denizens of ARRSE are unlikely to be the sort of shrinking violets attracted by the tendresse of the European ideal. Rather too many of the hard men willing to do violence on our behalf among the readership there for that to be true.

And yet it’s also true that actual vote tallies – even, how people said they voted rather than people telling us how they will vote – is a more accurate guide than anything else we’ve got other than the actual vote count itself.…

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Italy’s Problem Is The Euro And The European Union

That the average Italian is now less in favour of Europe and the European Union is obvious enough given the election results but what was it that happened? Experience of Europe and the European Union, obviously enough:

Italians used to be fervently pro-EU. What went wrong?
Stefano Montefiori
Italy once stood enthusiastically at the heart of the European project. But over the years disaffection set in

Wanting to be let into the club is one thing, feelings about being in it after a couple of decades experience another.…

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Surprise, Eh? The ECB Is A Pretty Useless Central Bank

As observers have noted the European Central Bank managed to do everything late and little in response to the financial crash. Which is a pit as the European Project is driven by an insistence that the technocrats know best, something not greatly in evidence here:

The ECB’s performance during the crisis: Lessons learned
Ashoka Mody, Milan Nedeljkovic 14 January 2019

The ECB’s actions in the wake of the Global Crisis have been described as hesitant, relative to other central banks.…

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Yes, You’re Right, The Euro Was A Disaster, Should Never Have Been Allowed

That’s not quite how Barry Eichengreen puts it here but within the bounds of what it’s polite for an economist to say in public he gives a most reasonable outline of the basic and major problem with the euro. Without fiscal union the euro’s not going to work well or even mildly so. But if there’s not the appetite for fiscal union then the euro’s not even going to work mildly well. This backed up by how damn difficult it is to leave a monetary union.

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It’s A Straight Choice – No Euro or Germany Pays Greek Pensions

This isn’t exactly what these federasts are saying here but it is what they mean. In jargon the eurozone is too large to be an optimal currency area so fiscal integration is needed. In vernacular we can say that either there’s no euro itself or Germany has to pay Greek pensions. For that’s what fiscal integration would mean down the road.

The underlying point is that monetary union means the same monetary policy everywhere. Has to, that’s just what it means.

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Given The Difficulties Making The Euro Work Why Not Just Abolish It?

That the euro has a political value given a certain set of political values is obvious. There is, as far as anyone can see, no economic value to it yet substantial costs and difficulties. As far as anyone can measure the rise in economic integration of the European economies comes from the Single Market not anything to do with the currency. And yet we’ve those obvious costs – as Greece has shown – of being in a single monetary policy area.

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Mandy Rice Davies Moment – “Euro Is Irreversible”

The German finance minister, Olaf Sholz, has insisted that the euro is irreversible. Which is one of those Mandy Rice Davies moments, he would say that, wouldn’t he? In fact, he’s got to say it, or if anyone starts admitting that the confidence trick of the common currency can indeed be escaped then it will rapidly become reversible.

We should all be hoping that it does become so reversible of course, so that we can stop the damage it is doing to the continent:

German finance minister Olaf Scholz said the euro is “irreversible”, echoing comments made by European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi earlier this month in response to growing anti-euro sentiment in Italy.

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Zero Hedge’s Wondrous Claim – The Problem With The Euro Is The Reason For It

Zero Hedge tends to be where economic misunderstandings go for a last hurrah. They’ve managed to outdo themselves this time around, insisting that the very problem with the euro is the reason for its existence. Something which shows a distinct lack of understanding of the underlying economics here, that of optimal currency areas.

By the way, the correct answer to the euro is “No.” The more technical one is Hell No.

What Zero Hedge have done is look at the manner in which various of the European currencies devalued over time against the Deutsche Mark.…

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To Entirely Misunderstand The Effect Of The Euro, The Full Horrors Of Membership

This is really rather impressive from Phillip Inman in The Guardian. He’s managed to line up all the evidence in a row, to prove how the euro is responsible for varied calamities, then use exactly that evidence to deny that the euro is responsible. If this is how well the national newspapers talk to us about economics then what hope for public policy, eh?

To quote at length so you can grasp the full horror:

A quick look at the financial crisis and its impact on the euro area shows that there were several countries found with their pants down when Lehman Brothers went bust.

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