Bank Of England Says Do Brexit, Get It Over With

True, this isn’t quite what they come out and say, not exactly, but it’s the implication of their latest research on uncertainty. We need to just do Brexit, get it done and dusted, for the long term good of the economy:

Is uncertainty a significant drag for investment and consumption? Since the global financial crisis heightened uncertainty has been considered to be one of the main factors behind the depth of the great recession and the subdued recovery.

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It’s Uncertainty About Idiot Politicians, Not Trade Restrictions Themselves, Which Is So Damaging

If someone comes out with a dingbat policy – say, we should all tax ourselves more for our temerity in buying from Johnny Foreigner – then that’s bad. But if we’ve had a series of dingbat policies then the truly damaging part becomes the uncertainty of what he next piece of dingbattery is going to be. Rather the problem with all politically directed policy of course, it’s terribly difficult to gauge how stupid the politicians are actually going to be:

Misdirection and the trade war malediction of 2018: Scaling the US–China bilateral tariff hikes
Simon Evenett, Johannes Fritz 01 July 2019

What is the practical and intellectual significance of the Sino-US tariff hikes of 2018?…

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The World Uncertainty Index Is Rising – Thank EU Donald Trump

An interesting addition to the possible economic statistics e can monitor is the World Uncertainty Index. This measures the use of the word “uncertain” in a particular series of economic reports. As we know it is uncertainty which limits such things as business investment, a major driver of economic growth. So, more people muttering about how uncertain things are the lower future economic growth. Seems logically fair even if measurement is always going to be tricky.

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Brexit Uncertainty Reduces Business Investment – So, Let’s Have Certainty, Leave With No Deal

One of the complaints – a valid one as it happens – about Brexit is that the uncertainty over what will actually happen is preventing people from doing things. Uncertainty – as opposed to risk – being something that can’t be wished away nor insured, hedged, against. Thus, logically enough, we should stop having the uncertainty. Announce that we’re leaving come March, there will be no deal, we’ll crash out to WTO terms.

There, we’ve dealt with the uncertainty, haven’t we?

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