A point we’ve consistently been making around here is that Brexit – to be devoutly desired of course – currently means leaving, without a deal, on March 29. This year too. All of the work that’s been done by the federasts to insist upon a meaningful vote in Parliament, the necessity of a majority for whatever deal there is, has meant that without such a positive vote in favour of something then it’s reversion to the default. That default being a no deal Brexit, a crash out to WTO terms. Simply because that’s what is in the law right now.
It needs a majority of the Commons in favour of some alternative to stop it. And there is no majority in favour of anything.
Well, actually, it might be possible to cobble together a majority in favour of delay, of a postponement of Article 50.
Excellent news then, a delay it is. Except, except, we don’t get to decide that. At least, we don’t get to decide that alone.
We can indeed simply revoke Article 50. Say, “Har, har, it’s all a joke, we’re not leaving.” The ECJ has ruled upon this, that’s a unilateral action we can take. But it’s tough to see that gaining a majority in the Commons. To delay though, that means that the countries in the remnant-EU have to agree. Which, well:
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””] Emmanuel Macron has said France will block a Brexit delay unless there is a “new choice” by Britain, as Spain’s prime minister said that merely postponing the no-deal deadline would not be “reasonable or desirable”. In a sign of the heightened risk of an accidental crash-landing for the UK, both leaders signalled their disapproval of Theresa May’s suggestion of a last-minute request for a two-month extension if her deal is voted down again. The French president said there would need to be a clear purpose to delaying the UK’s exit from the EU, in comments that will inevitably raise cross-party concerns among those seeking to take no-deal Brexit off the table. “We would support an extension request only if it was justified by a new choice of the British,” Macron said at a joint press conference held with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel. “But we would in no way accept an extension without a clear objective. [/perfectpullquote]We can guess what the Spanish demands would be. Hand over Gibraltar or we shoot the dog.
Oh, and note one more thing. Whatever the telling the Dagoes to shut up process is going to be Brussels needs to get on with it in the next 29 days.
Sure, obviously enough, this is all coloured by desire here. The ability of the EU to cobble some nonsense together should not be underestimated. But the more we around here look at this the more we think we’ll end up with the right result. Out to WTO terms on March 29. There just doesn’t seem to be time for anything else.
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I suspect that Macron is just giving May an excuse to soften things even more.
Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez -- surely a joke name? -- said: "Although Spain is not going to oppose the concession of an eventual extension, it must have a certain perspective of resolution". That doesn't sound like someone who is going to vote against the delay when it comes down to it.
Anyway, the EU nations will do what they're told by the EU. If the EU wants a delay, there shall be one.
The real worry is that the EU will try to force a two-year delay onto the British.
I'm less than convinced that the EU wants a deal. I wonder if they haven't been pushing the UK to walk away all along. I suspect they believe their own propaganda that the EU is the fount of prosperity.
And I seriously doubt they'll want a UK delegation in the next EU parliament to go with the awkward squad they're likely to get from other places.
I tend to agree with Tim
"..There just doesn’t seem to be time for anything else..."
Which appears to have been the intention all along. We are to always keep a-hold of Nurse
For fear of finding something worse.
You can get 4/1 that you're right. What is the market seeing that we are blind to, I wonder?
Hope that you are right; fear the ability and willingness of the politicians to subvert the results of the referendum.
They have scared the British enough that a second referendum may end differently.
My MP will vote for a delay 'because of the risk to jobs'.
It seems to me that a German importer of British goods, if told that his supplier will be leaving in a while, will look for other more reliable suppliers PDQ. So a delay will result in a stream of cancelled orders, and a collapse of various market sectors, without any ability to negotiate new markets outside the EU....