Realist, not conformist analysis of the latest financial, business and political news

Jumping From The EU Train

Let’s be clear – The Withdrawal Agreement is poorly-named.

It does not involve withdrawing from the EU in any meaningful sense, but instead commits us to Remaining within the EU and strips the UK of any future self-determination. It removes from the UK control of any future departure from the EU, and places it in the hands of those who reside in the building in Brussels with the statute of Europa outside – a woman riding a bull, keen students of the Book of Revelation may notice.

To this extent, the Withdrawal Agreement is actually a treaty for staying in the EU – it resembles quite closely the surrender terms that might be offered to a vanquished enemy, or the document that might be initially given to a small country wishing to join the EU.

Like say, Scotland.

One wonders if the EU wrote it in the run-up to the independence vote of 2014, threw it on a shelf when the Scots voted to stay in the UK, and then Angela Merkel simply tossed it across the desk at her puppet Theresa May at their meeting the day before it was announced at Chequers?

If the EU was a lending institution, this would not be a lengthy mortgage offered at a very low fixed rate, to a woman of considerable status, means and integrity (as might be expected of a deal offered to the fifth-largest economy in the world, the second-largest in Europe and the EU’s biggest customer), but is instead deeply punitive, almost insulting, perhaps comparable to a payday loan.

The Withdrawal Agreement is actually The Wonga Agreement.

And this is to be expected of course, because while Britain leaving the EU would be a disaster, Britain leaving the EU and thriving would mean the end of the generational attempt at reviving communism at the heart of Europe – many other countries (and the richer ones at that) would all suddenly be demanding the same terms and the EUSSR would fracture irreparably.

And at that point, all the ex-communists currently gorging at the trough in Brussels would have to accept the death of their dream.

If Britain left and thrived.

So the EUSSR can only survive Britain’s departure if it is made into a disaster for the UK.

Which meant they simply could not offer us a good deal, even if they had wanted to.

I have written several pieces about Theresa May’s determination to pass the EU’s Wonga Agreement like some grisly kidney stone – I don’t think there is any longer any doubt that the EU wrote it, and have insisted that Theresa May do her best to deliver it, regardless of the consequences for Britain, our parliamentary democracy, or Theresa May’s grotesque political career.

They clearly intend to force her to leave it all out on the field – presumably they have assured her that after she is a national pariah in her home country, they will grant her a cushy job at the EU, or at the World Bank? Either that or they have some pretty serious kompromat.

So soon Theresa May will bring forward the third version of their deal, and if that doesn’t look like passing the EU will tweak it again and use their pet media to convince us that it’s now sufficiently good that only a patriot with integrity insane ideologues like Jacob Rees- Mogg would refuse to sign it.

So they may “grant” us an extension to Article 50 and tweak it again, and once again our media will demonise those who feel that agreeing to “stay in the EU forever” doesn’t really qualify as withdrawal from it.

Or they might just ram it through before the 29th, with help from some Labour europhiles.

As Donald might say – “Sad!”

Let’s remind ourselves about the referendum.

The Brexit referendum was not about deals, or treaties. It was about leaving them behind by withdrawing from the EU. We were not looking to negotiate an improved arrangement – that was what David Cameron had already failed to do – the only reason we had a referendum in the first place was because the EU refused to offer any “deal” to convince us to stay.

They were so convinced that the British people were too afraid to Leave that they offered us no incentive to Remain.

They thought we were bluffing about Leaving.

We weren’t.

Once we voted to Leave, that should have been the end of all talk of deals and treaties – the payments to the EU should have ceased immediately and we should have triggered Article 50 and simply departed. Immediately.

Yes it would have been painful for all sides, but once you realise your opponent cannot give you a good deal because of the onlookers who will demand a similar deal, you have to depart straight away. Every moment you delay weakens your position and strengthens theirs. Talk about trade deals much later, once you have departed and your trading partner is suffering from the loss of your business.

In summary, the British people demanded to leave Hotel EU, and the British establishment told us to wait in our room while they negotiated the terms of our departure. We now find they have merely negotiated that we move to a slightly inferior room and we must keep paying the same room charges.


The Remainer Dream – Reforming the EU

In the classic film The Great Escape, two characters (Hendley and Bligh) decide that their best chance of escape from the Germans is to jump from a moving train.

While this is risky and may result in serious injuries, they consider it preferable to being captured by the Germans.

I find myself thinking about Brexit in these terms.

During the last two years, many times have Remainers said that the Brexiteers are committing us to a course that is uncertain – that a generation of people who didn’t want this would now have to endure the uncertainty of life outside the EU.

Yet no-one thinks to ask the Remainers what level of uncertainty we would have endured inside the EU, if we had voted to Remain?

How has the EU been operating these last two years, since we voted to Leave?

What does the future look like for them?

Many more years of corrupt accounting, influence-peddling and malign influence from outside forces? More years of immigration failure, internal wrangling, terrorist attacks, riots, record levels of unemployment in the periphery and a few more epic banking collapses? Their own Army? Some togas for the lads and lasses in Brussels?

They already have limos, expense accounts, whopping tax-free salaries and private jets – what do they still lack? Someone to peel their grapes?

The EU has been heading towards federalism for years – anyone unable to see that is selectively ignoring the repeated pronouncements of those who have influence in Brussels.

The EU was always a runaway locomotive, so the British establishment resisted Nigel Farage as long as they could hoping that by the time a referendum was forced upon them the train would have picked up so much speed that jumping off would result in serious injuries.

They reasoned that presented with the choice of leaping into the rushing darkness or retreating to a warm cabin with an expensive brandy, the British people would wearily retreat and allow themselves to be conveyed onwards to the European federalism the EU expected them to fund.

But the British people are collectively so very wise, and determined, and bloody-minded. And when challenged by demagogues and tyrants, they have never allowed fear or the prospect of pain or defeat to prevent them from doing what is right and noble. They chose to jump into the darkness.

And this was not because they irrationally desire pain, but because they had looked out the window and seen the federalist chasm up ahead.

If we are to be charitable about intentions, our establishment lolling indolently in First Class were simply too entranced by the excellent brandy to ever look out the window and see the approaching disaster, and simply could not comprehend why anyone would jump from this luxurious and fast-moving gravy train.

The conduct of their dupes is more desperate – those so fearful they cannot bring themselves to do what is right, and instead insist we should retreat to the cabin and meekly await our fate. We must ignore them – they are cowards at best and traitors at worst. If a recent petition is any indication there are at least a million of them, and they will take our heart if we let them.

In summary again, all attempts to reform the EU are pure fantasy – no Remainer has ever even attempted to lay out how such reforms might be brought forward. We have seen or heard no plans whatsoever about the methods by which such reforms might be achieved, and while those in Brussels have mentioned the word reform in passing on occasion, their conduct when asked to even sign off their own accounts reveals a culture that is deeply committed to racing towards full federalisation with no derailments allowed. It is a one-way ticket – more centralisation of power, and less democratic accountability, without end Amen.

Anyone who believes the EU intends to reform is a fool.


The penultimate issue is the hijacking of language – from the start, our opponents have used the phrase “crashing out” to pretend that walking away is not an act of will but a failure of planning.

They hoped to taint an act of national courage with the aura of haplessness just by using this phrase.

And we let them.

Our partners were far too slow in recognising the danger of allowing it to be framed this way. From the start, Remaining in the EU should have been characterised as “remaining shackled” or “held hostage”?

The chosen phrase should have been repeated over and over and over, by every Brexiteer, on every TV channel, on every occasion.


We’ve certainly got enough of our people wracked with a version of Stockholm Syndrome to justify that description – our total inability to ever get our way in European Councils has not prevented Remainers from claiming that we must stay in so we “have influence”, disregarding the fact that despite having been in for forty years we’ve never had any at all. The EU is a one-way ticket, and our attempts to even slow the train have been entirely unsuccessful.

It is too late now, but we must certainly be aware in this next stage of how language is always used by the Left to frame the narrative they desire – when the foul creature Theresa May brings forward the third version of the EU’s Wonga Agreement, and passes it with help from Labour Europhiles, we must be ready to immediately begin defining the situation with the right language so that people are not deceived again.


Finally, let’s look at the motivated reasoning that has been used to repeatedly gurn into existence the diarrhoea of economic forecasting from the execrable pet Europhile economists.

We know about their transparent fearmongering, but when forecasters are repeatedly wrong, their future comments should be treated as fairy tales.

Instead, a persistent group of europhiles have been allowed to garland them and use their projections as facts.

“No Deal will be an economic disaster!” is continually regurgitated by all Remainers, Remainiacs, and the mainstream media as if it were a fact, rather than a prejudiced forecast from a string of discredited and partial forecasters with no track record of ever being right.

We must draw attention to this – it’s one thing to make forecasts that prove wrong, and another to deliberately make fake forecasts that you know to be false.

But to allow our opponents to repeatedly make fake forecasts that they know to be false and THEN allow them to treat these laughable fairy tales as actual data is unforgivable.

As with all climate change bullshit – projections are not facts. Michael Fish might tell me it will be fine and sunny next week, but until a tornado drives an oak tree through my windscreen next week I can’t know whether he is right.

And let’s be clear – the only way their forecasts could be so reliably wrong is if they are knowingly faking them. Just by the law of averages even the most incompetent forecaster should have got one right by now.

Bullshit projections from habitual bullshitters are in fact bullshit, not facts.

Where we are now

Events are moving fast – by the time you read these words, things will have changed.

Arch-Remainer John Bercow has intervened and proposed that Theresa May must get a concession from the EU for her deal to be considered a third time.

As that was always the plan, this is no hardship – the sole purpose is to try to sharpen the appetites of any Brexiteers on the fence, in an attempt to pry loose more of their votes.

Theresa May and her EU handlers are determined to push through the Wonga Agreement and are merely using an arch-Remainer to put Britain in a constitutional jam, so that when the EU come riding in on their pale horse to save us from this manufactured crisis, we don’t notice that the rider is Death.

Donald Tusk has already said “Even if the hope for final success may seem frail, even illusory, and although Brexit fatigue is increasingly visible and justified, we cannot give up seeking – until the very last moment – a positive solution”

Give us a break Donald – are you weary of having to perform in this charade you devised? You will no doubt be glad when our treacherous MPs vote through your awful deal and you can continue to hold us hostage only this time with no possibility of us ever again escaping. It will no doubt be a relief to go back to treating us with contempt without the onerous duty of at least pretending to be our friends.

For us here in Britain, we must now watch in paralysed horror as the EU tweaks their offer a final time.

Nauseated, we will see the gathering storm of criticism as the few stalwart Brexiteers left are demonised for their intransigence.

Appalled, those of us able to see through this pantomime we will sense the pending betrayal.

Tearfully, we will see bloated and pompous Labour Europhiles ooze across the carpet to vote through the Wonga Agreement, leaving a trail of slime behind them.

I see no way to stop it – the Remainers have won.

Like Samson, all we can do now is grasp the pillars to which we have been chained and bring this malevolent edifice crashing down on the EU’s head.

Sadly, our treacherous MPs don’t have the will to attempt this either, and those that do are too enfeebled to carry it out.

Our politicians usually disappoint us.

Often they make us ashamed.

Occasionally, they disgust us.

This roughshod riding over our democracy goes beyond all that – our politicians have ignored our national courage and betrayed us to our enemies and have destroyed any remaining trust we had in them. And they do so while patronising us and claiming the moral high ground.

With a few honourable exceptions, Parliament is now essentially a Vichy chamber of officials operating under instruction from a foreign power, and no longer deserve the votes or the respect of the people they claim to represent.

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Andrew Carey
Andrew Carey
5 years ago

Any chance Alex of mentioning the primary fiscal purpose of the EU? Of naming the class of people on whom the subsidies are incident? Of mentioning that the major feature of the Customs Union is to protect the above mentioned class of people from competition? Of mentioning the EU regulations preventing the recipients from being more productive, which might put the less productive ones out of business?

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