As we’ve all known for sometime now if Remain could be said to win the euro-elections then that would have been a referendum upon that subject of Brexit. It’s cancelled that is. But if Leave wins or could be said to have that would be different because reasons.
Looks like they’re going to declare reasons:
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””] Senior Tory and Labour politicians have issued frantic calls to their voters to back them in next week’s European elections after a new poll showed support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party had soared to a level higher than for the two main parties put together. The Opinium survey for the Observer places the Brexit party on 34%, when people were asked how they intended to vote on 23 May, with Labour slipping to 21% and the Conservatives collapsing to just 11%. Ominously for Theresa May, support for the Tories at the European elections is now less than a third of that for Farage’s party, and below that for the Liberal Democrats, who are on 12%. The poll suggests the Brexit party, launched only last month, is now on course for a thumping victory that Farage will, MPs fear, use to back his argument that the UK must leave the EU immediately without a deal. [/perfectpullquote]Well, Farage is putting his argument to the people, no? And it’s the people who decide, no? Democracy being that idea that the voters get what the voters ask for, good and hard?
Except, of course, that’s not the Remain argument at all. The voters should only get what is good for them, the definition of good being decided by the rulers.
In other news today we’re told that the Brexit Party would win 49 seats in a general election held today. Might even be true that although I have my doubts. Ukip’s support – including declarations on how to vote at a GE – always surged around the euros then fell back as they receded. Maybe the anger would carry through this time but dunno.
What really is interesting in these numbers though is how different from the referendum they are. Tory and Labour are, well, wibble. We’ll do something, some deal, negotiate, and their support is falling drastically. The LibDems are stating that we’ll not leave at all and they’re on 12%. The bugger it, we’re off, Brexit Party is on 34%. Which is a considerable firming of that bugger it vote, no?
Sure, the referendum showed a plurality for leave. We now seem to have a plurality for my more extreme view – we’re off and we don’t care how. Actually, that slightly worries. A plurality think as I do? Not sure the universe can take something that unusual.
But to be serious about these polls. As and when Remain goes down in burning flames at the euros they’re going to have reasons, because, about why that’s not a verdict upon Remain, aren’t they? Anyone care to give us a preview of those reasons in the comments?
The language we use matters - it provides clarity to our own thoughts and enables…
It is now generally acknowledged that the structure of the NHS needs to be overhauled…
In the film Apollo 13, a loss of oxygen causes the crew to start inadvertently…
There's an idea out there which seems intuitive but then so many ideas do seem…
When we think about the darkly opaque goals of modern central bankers as they relate…
As the papers recently filled with the distressing images of desperate souls looking to escape…
View Comments
May be they will use the one they always throw at us Breixteers.."They didn't know what they where voting for"? ...hahaha
"They're racist. They've got to be racist because only racists vote for Nigel Farage. And we know that only racists vote for Nigel Farage because see above."
In other news today we’re told that the Brexit Party would win 49 seats in a general election held today. Might even be true that although I have my doubts.
I share your doubts. Using national polls to predict GE outcomes is dubious, even if we were just looking at existing parties. To get useful information, you need to target a sufficiently large number of key marginals and conduct specific polling there (which is much more expensive, but can be done if you're Lord Ashcroft). Where are the winnable seats for the Brexit party? (I could make semi-intelligent guesses, but that's not the same as real information.)
Still, if they can be used as a cattle prod to remove the festering semi-corpse that is May from No 10, what's not to like?
You should make a poll out of this. In California so no feel for local issues, but these come to mind:
_ the Russians
_ traditional parties' candidates are all crap
_ the Jooos (surefire Corbynite winner)
_ stupid voters (perennial favorite)
The line of attack will be that the UK is leaving the EU, but not without a deal and this takes time, because No Deal will make people poorer and that's not what they voted for. May will blame Labour and her recalcitrant MPs, Corbyn will blame May for her Red Lines. CUK will be obliterated but not silenced and the Lid Dems will continue to be rude. They will all blame Farage. So not much change.
Of course the No Deal argument is fraudulent, numerous agreements between the UK and the EU have already been made in key areas, such as aviation and road haulage.
However, there is an elephant outside of the room, and that's the EU. The new Commission won't have nailed their colours to the WA, the new EP could be more sympathetic to the UK and the Brexit Party will likely be the largest Eurosceptic party in the EP, giving them a potent voice especially if Farage yet again becomes President of an EP parliamentary group.
It's not just the UK that is in political turmoil, the EU member states are more at odds with each other than ever before and anti-federal votes likely to be at an all time high. The course towards Brexit has multiple drivers, European as well as British.
"It's even less binding than the referendum was. "
"It was voting for who we want to represent us, not for voting out of, the EU"
"There were more than two choices, you cant confect a referendum result from that. "
"Not everyone who voted was voting for in/out."
"The X% who didn't/wouldn't/couldn't vote would have voted the way I did, so there's that... "
Those are the ones that immediately spring to mind.
Most of the electorate stayed at home. This means most people don't care to have an MEP to represent them, in fact they don't want 'a seat at the table making the rules'.
Oh sorry, that's a knockdown of the Remain objection to signing up to the EEA.