Economists make predictions because they want o make astrologers look accurate. Yet for certain things predictions by economists is all we have. How many times will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates for example? How many times before this stage of the business cycle is over and we go into reverse that is, lowering rates in order to stimulate the economy? This is economic policy making so the best we’ve got is to let economists opine upon what economic policy is going to be.
IHS Markit thinks that we’ve got only the one interest rate rise to come:
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””] United States Federal Reserve Expected monetary actions during the next two years: Muted inflation and few signs of significant fiscal imbalances provide the Fed with an opportunity to be patient as it awaits further information. The late-2019 rate hike is expected to be the final rate hike for this tightening cycle. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has yet to decide important issues related to the evolution of the maturity composition of the Fed’s Treasury holdings and whether to accelerate shrinkage in its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio (offset by reinvestment in Treasuries). [/perfectpullquote]Given that I’m not an economist I don’t make such predictions, merely report.
