This is more than just politically minded scaremongering from partisan types. This is an actual and real possibility. If the eurozone falls over then Britain could be stuck with a vast, £200 billion-style, bill for the clean up. This is because, although we’re not members of the eurozone as members of the EU we’ve a part in guaranteeing various of the debts existing under the eurozone scheme.
The problem with this being firstly that contingent liability, of course.…
See MoreJust to give us a bit more information on how well the European Union works. It’s entirely possible that we’re looking at another recession over there already. Yes, fair enough, this is a couple of indicators, no more, but, you know, some of them matter.
And wouldn’t it be just a glorious justification of the euro if it managed to go back into recession without having really left the last one?
Germany’s manufacturing sector remained stuck contraction in May, according to the latest PMI® data from IHS Markit and BME.
The argument in favour of the European Union is that if we get everything run by the clever people from their bureaucracies then the world will be a better place. The problem with the EU is that we get the people we do running everything from their bureaucracies and the world is thereby not a better place:
The procyclicality of banking in the euro area
Harry Huizinga, Luc Laeven 29 May 2019
A high procyclicality of banks’ loan loss provisioning is undesirable from a financial stability perspective, as it implies that bank capitalisations are more negatively affected at the trough of the business cycle, exactly when capital market conditions for banks are at their weakest.…
See MoreThe answer being that the eurozone monetary system is neither well designed nor well run:
Monetary System
Giancarlo Corsetti, Barry Eichengreen, Galina Hale, Eric Tallman 15 February 2019
Why was recovery from the euro area crisis delayed for a decade? The explanation lies in the absence of credible and timely policies to backstop financial intermediaries and sovereign debt and to thereby prevent problems in banks and bond markets from feeding on one another. This column adds light and colour to this analysis, contrasting recent experience with the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System, when national central banks and treasuries more successfully provided this backstop.…
See MoreAnother proof that friends don’t let friends stay within the European Union. That rescue of the Greek economy, as planned by the European Union and the eurozone, is still failing. And it’s doing so for a reason that was identified way back when, right when the first proposals were put before us. The costs to the well being of the Greek people are just too large. Actually, they’re at levels that no democracy will support over the long term.…
See MoreLast week, Andrew Neil and a panel of journos and critical thinkers introduced a new opinion poll to a room of fidgeting politicos at the Hungarian Embassy in London. Struggling to acclimatise to the rising thermostat, we listened to an opening statement by Zsolt Barthel-Rúzsa (Member of the Századvég Board of Directors) and a keynote speech by József Szájer (MEP from Hungary and vice chair of the EEP Group) where he introduces 2018’s Project28.
Project 28 is an opinion poll conducted by the Századvég Foundation to analyze the attitudes of EU citizens in order to shed light on the changing state of the continent.…
See MoreMacron, the French President, has a not so subtle trick up his sleeve with his plans for reform of the eurozone. That being that he’s presenting it as a two speed Europe – those who want the further integration can have it, those who don’t need not sign up. But that’s not what will happen at all, those centralising plans will apply to everyone whether they want them or not.
In terms of his actual public plans they’re just more of the same.…
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