Dan Davies Is Right – We’ve Not Had A Proper Recession For Decades

Those still nursing tender bruises from the Crash aren’t going to like this idea but Dan Davies is interestingly correct here – we’ve not had a proper recession for ages. Decades in fact. Because we’ve not had a recession that is simply a turn of the business cycle, we’ve had a series of disasters which we’ve attempted to cure. Davies’ point is that we’re not prepared for the coming recession, which will be a normal one, simply because we’ve got out of the habit of dealing with normal recessions.…

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You Know, We Might Be Looking At Another European Recession Already

Just to give us a bit more information on how well the European Union works. It’s entirely possible that we’re looking at another recession over there already. Yes, fair enough, this is a couple of indicators, no more, but, you know, some of them matter.

And wouldn’t it be just a glorious justification of the euro if it managed to go back into recession without having really left the last one?

Germany’s manufacturing sector remained stuck contraction in May, according to the latest PMI® data from IHS Markit and BME.

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If Only Frances Ryan – Or The Guardian – Knew Anything About Economics

That some people have differing views than us capitalist pig dogs is fine, just fine. We are, after all, the liberals around here, freedom and liberty mean that people do indeed have the right to disagree with us. But it is views, morals, desires, which are free to choose, not the basic facts about the universe. You know, those facts which are sacred rather than the comment which is free?

Which brings us to The Guardian, its columnists, and our exemplar for the day, Frances Ryan.…

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How Big? The Stimulus I Mean – No, The Economic Stimulus

So, as and when we get our next recession how big should the stimulus be to get us out of the recession? And what exactly should be done? I don’t agree with part of this paper here. I am convinced that even assuming the aggregate demand argument is correct that tax cuts are the way to go. But that’s a prejudice driven by my suspicion of the efficiency with which government spends money. The other part of the argument here I agree with.

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There Will Be Another US Recession, The Question Is How Soon?

Given that economists have predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions – and very few have predicted those that actually happened – the when of the next US recession is going to be a fun point to consider. Which is what is done here. Do not though fall into the trap of thinking that as we don’t know when there won’t. We have no abolished the business cycle, there will be another recession at some point:

The next US recession is likely to be around the corner
Franck Portier 03 May 2019

Business economists argue that the length of an expansion is a good indicator of when a recession will hit.…

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Politics Is The Very Reason Fiscal Policy Doesn’t Work In Recessions

It’s a delightful idea, that if we put all the wise people in a big room and get them to chew over society’s problems then they’ll come up with optimal solutions. Reality doesn’t quite work that way as every legislature on the planet shows us. So it is with this idea of Keynesian demand management. Our specific example being this idea that in a recession the government should go spend more so as to get us out of the recession.…

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Laurence Kotlikoff On What Really Produced The Recession And Crash – No, Not Bad Bankers

It’s not necessary to entirely agree with this analysis to grasp and agree with the underlying point being made. It was the structure of the banking system, not the existence of bad actors within it, which led to the crash and thus recession. I’d definitely not agree with the solution either:

The Big Con: Reassessing the ‘Great’ Recession and its ‘fix’
Laurence Kotlikoff 28 November 2018

The general consensus on what caused the Great Recession can be summed up as “bad banks full of bad bankers did bad things”.…

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Two Absurd Claims About Lending And The Great Crash

The Observer’s business editorial really outdoes itself today with two fallacious claims about bank lending and recessions, crashes and even the Great Crash. It manages to make the opposite statement to the one they normally complain about and then also get the cause of and reason for that Crash wrong.

They wanted companies to borrow and grow, but not like this. Last week, this concern was visible in the minutes of Bank of England’s financial policy committee.

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