Realist, not conformist analysis of the latest financial, business and political news

An Optimistic View Of Theresa May’s Brexit Deal

If a vote of confidence in Theresa May is triggered, it is likely that she will win it by a big enough margin to enhance her authority.

The Commons vote on the Brexit deal presently looks short of numbers, but this could change. MPs might prefer the deal on the table to no deal at all.  They might decide that it delivers most of what the majority of voters wanted in the referendum. Some Tories will vote against, but some Labour MP’s will vote in favour.  Once it becomes clear that a second referendum is not going to happen, and that remaining in the EU is not an option, MPs might vote to avoid a hard, no-deal Brexit.

If it is carried, then next March 29th the UK leaves the EU on those terms. If it is not carried the government has 21 days to come up with a new plan. This will likely be the existing plan with a few EU-agreed modifications on the border issue to now carry it through.

It is then highly probable that within the two-year transition period, a free trade deal with the EU will be signed, rendering unnecessary the arrangements on the Irish border that some have objected to in the proposed deal.

The UK will have left the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy. It will control its borders and its immigration policy. It will no longer pay billions into the EU every year. It will negotiate free trade deals outside the EU, and its citizens will enjoy visa-free travel within the EU.

It will have left the EU, as its citizens voted to do in 2016.

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Notify of

Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Rhoda Klapp
Rhoda Klapp
5 years ago

Anonymous User isn’t Theresa May, by any chance? Or just somebody churning out her talking points? Brandon Lewis? It’s naive, this post.

5 years ago

no wonder the writer wants to remain anonymous. If i wanted to read garbage i’d head off to the potato’s blog.

5 years ago

‘If it is carried, then next March 29th the UK leaves the EU on those terms.’

If it is carried, the UK does NOT leave the EU. That is the point. And that is certainly not better than no deal.

But my prediction: if the UK leaves with no deal, once it has left there will be a deal within about a week as the apparatchiks in the EU go into panic mode, and which gives the UK what it wants.

Would love your thoughts, please comment.x