Duelling estimates of the infectivity and death rate from the coronavirus. In The Guardian we get one trying to straddle the differences:
There is growing evidence that, on average, people who show Covid-19 symptoms have a 1–1.5% risk of death. This has been estimated in studies of data from Wuhan, early international cases, and the Diamond Princess (with data adjusted to account for the older age of the cruise ship passengers). But this 1–1.5% risk just tells us what happens to people who have clear symptoms. If, as the above studies suggest, only 20–80% of infections come with symptoms, it would mean that for every 100,000 people who get infected with Covid-19, we would expect somewhere in the region of 200–1,200 deaths (ie between 100,000 x 20% x 1% and 100,000 x 80% x 1.5%).
OK, at that lower end of that range this makes is a bad year for influenza. We have had recent years with tens of thousands of deaths. At the top end rather worse than that, yes. Assuming that everyone in the country gets it (they won’t) and there’s that 1,2% rate then that a doubling of the annual number of deaths.
Except, well, some substantial portion of those who die are those who would have died anyway.
Which does lead to the only important question right now. For this we close down civilisation?
Hey, maybe we should ‘n’all but the possibility that we shouldn’t is there too.