Realist, not conformist analysis of the latest financial, business and political news

The IMF’s Wrong About Venezuela – GDP Hasn’t Fallen By 50%

The International Monetary Fund tells us that Venezuela’s GDP has fallen by 50% since 2013. This is incorrect, it has fallen by much more than that. For, absent the oil extraction industry, Venezuela simply doesn’t have an economy any more, not in any modern sense of that word.

The problem here is simply that no one really is willing to believe the incredible destruction brought about by Venezuela’s Bolivarian socialism.

Thus this is wrong:

[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””] The size of Venezuela’s economy has halved in the space of six years, according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund as the country faces political turmoil. Further contractions this year will bring the cumulative decline in GDP since 2013 to more than than 50pc. [/perfectpullquote]

No. Even though the IMF do say it:

[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]In Venezuela, the economic and humanitarian crisis has continued. Real GDP is projected to decline further in 2019, bringing the cumulative decline since 2013 to over 50 percent—driven by plummeting oil production and worsening conditions for the non-oil sector. Hyperinflation and outward migration are also projected to intensify in 2019. Evolving political developments add another layer of uncertainty to the country’s outlook.[/perfectpullquote]

So, a quick test. From the World Bank:

So, half that latest figure they’ve got there, $7,500 a year per person. Compare with:

Hands up everyone who thinks Venezuela is still about as rich as Thailand. No one? Therefore the decline in GDP has been greater than 50%, hasn’t it?

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