Richard Murphy – formerly Senior Lecturer at Islington Technical College – tells us that the British economy will suffer from the coronavirus to the same extent that it near fell over in 2008.
Rishi Sunak would be wise to consider all such measures. But he needs to do something much more than that. He needs to prepare for government deficits on the scale of 2008 to 2010, because the chance that they are going to happen is very high. There are three reasons for saying so.
Well, there’s his prediction.
A 5 or 6% fall in UK GDP. Leading to 10% of GDP budget deficits:
No, I don;t think so either. I expect this all to be over very quickly. Partly because China’s already recovering, partly because we’re arriving at the Northern Hemisphere spring and therefore the summer in which ‘flu viruses don;t thrive and partly because disease just isn’t that important to an economy.
But let’s just take this as a marker from the Sage of Ely and see what happens, shall we?