A point we’ve consistently been making around here is that Brexit – to be devoutly desired of course – currently means leaving, without a deal, on March 29. This year too. All of the work that’s been done by the federasts to insist upon a meaningful vote in Parliament, the necessity of a majority for whatever deal there is, has meant that without such a positive vote in favour of something then it’s reversion to the default. That default being a no deal Brexit, a crash out to WTO terms. Simply because that’s what is in the law right now.
It needs a majority of the Commons in favour of some alternative to stop it. And there is no majority in favour of anything.
Well, actually, it might be possible to cobble together a majority in favour of delay, of a postponement of Article 50.
Excellent news then, a delay it is. Except, except, we don’t get to decide that. At least, we don’t get to decide that alone.
We can indeed simply revoke Article 50. Say, “Har, har, it’s all a joke, we’re not leaving.” The ECJ has ruled upon this, that’s a unilateral action we can take. But it’s tough to see that gaining a majority in the Commons. To delay though, that means that the countries in the remnant-EU have to agree. Which, well:
Emmanuel Macron has said France will block a Brexit delay unless there is a “new choice” by Britain, as Spain’s prime minister said that merely postponing the no-deal deadline would not be “reasonable or desirable”. In a sign of the heightened risk of an accidental crash-landing for the UK, both leaders signalled their disapproval of Theresa May’s suggestion of a last-minute request for a two-month extension if her deal is voted down again. The French president said there would need to be a clear purpose to delaying the UK’s exit from the EU, in comments that will inevitably raise cross-party concerns among those seeking to take no-deal Brexit off the table. “We would support an extension request only if it was justified by a new choice of the British,” Macron said at a joint press conference held with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel. “But we would in no way accept an extension without a clear objective.
We can guess what the Spanish demands would be. Hand over Gibraltar or we shoot the dog.
Oh, and note one more thing. Whatever the telling the Dagoes to shut up process is going to be Brussels needs to get on with it in the next 29 days.
Sure, obviously enough, this is all coloured by desire here. The ability of the EU to cobble some nonsense together should not be underestimated. But the more we around here look at this the more we think we’ll end up with the right result. Out to WTO terms on March 29. There just doesn’t seem to be time for anything else.