There Weren’t A Million On The Peoples’ March – Far From It For They Overestimate

We could say they just overestimate or we could, of course, call it what it is – lying in the name of a political goal. Quite why lying in pursuit of some political goal is treated more leniently than in chasing after any other is uncertain but that is the way it all works. The Peoples’ March didn’t have a million people on it yesterday. We know this best by looking at their claims of the previous one which were more than just a little overcooked:

One million join march against Brexit as Tories plan to oust May
Organisers hail UK’s ‘biggest-ever demo’, while Tom Watson leads calls for fresh referendum

No, not really.

In one of the biggest demonstrations in British history, a crowd estimated at over one million people yesterday marched peacefully through central London to demand that MPs grant them a fresh referendum on Brexit.

Cui Bono? That is, who did the estimating?

Organisers of the march said precise numbers had been difficult to gauge

Ah, lots of people came to my demo, no, really, they did!

So, what did they claim last time?

Protesters seeking a referendum on the final Brexit deal have attended a rally which organisers say was the biggest demonstration of its kind. Young voters led the People’s Vote march to London’s Parliament Square, which supporters say attracted approximately 700,000 protesters.

Unnh Hunh?

The reality is that it’s really hard to accurately measure crowd sizes at non-ticketed events. That said, our crude estimate is that, based on available evidence, it looked like around 450,000 people were present at the start of the march.

Ah.

It was a big march, certainly (and mostly an amiable one), but visibly much smaller than the march against the Iraq war in 2003 (two million claimed by the organisers, probably more like 300,000) and the Countryside Alliance’s Liberty and Livelihood March of 2002 (organisers and police roughly agreed on 400,000). Of course, I do not know how many were there on Saturday (I would guess about 150,000), but nor does anyone.

Right:

A “historic” march in favour of a second Brexit referendum was attended by just a third of the number that its organisers claimed, according to an official estimate. A debriefing document prepared by the Greater London Authority put the number of attendees at October’s People’s Vote rally at 250,000 – significantly below the campaign group’s claim that they were joined by more than 700,000 people. Last night the group was accused of attempting to mislead politicians and voters about its level of support.

So, yes, of course they’re lying. After all, they’re federasts so why wouldn’t they?

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Davidsb
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Davidsb

A debriefing document prepared by the Greater London Authority put the number of attendees at October’s People’s Vote rally at 250,000 – significantly below the campaign group’s claim that they were joined by more than 700,000 people.

And didn’t crowdsizing software used at the march come up with an estimate of c80,000?

Geoff Pyne
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Geoff Pyne

And didn’t crowdsizing software used at the march come up with an estimate of c80,000?
No.

KeithM
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KeithM

There was no such debriefing document. You’ve been reading fake news again…

Rhoda Klapp
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Rhoda Klapp

So, divide by six to ten. Unless it’s a countryside alliance march, or next week’s leave march which will be lucky if it makes the news at all.

Jonathan Harston
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Jonathan Harston

Can’t they just helicopter over them and count them?

KeithM
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KeithM

That was the methodology used for the 450,000 figure quoted in the article – people present at the start of the march “That doesn’t account for people outside the official march route, or who joined along the route or to hear speeches at the end. That means we can’t say that 670,000 is wrong as an estimate, although from what organisers have told us about how they came up with their estimate, we suspect it might be on the high side.”
see https://fullfact.org/news/did-670000-march-peoples-vote-brexit/

TD
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TD

Perhaps they were counting potential progeny.

Q46
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Q46

Feeding of the 5 000. Of course nobody counted the crowd. 5 000 was just a way of saying ‘a lot’ more than you get in the market place.

KeithM
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KeithM

This article repeats with no evidence whatsoever a series of self-supporting opinions to tarnish the organisers as liars. This item selectively quotes from https://fullfact.org/news/did-670000-march-peoples-vote-brexit/ which explains their methodology used and concludes “This is an estimate by the organisers of the march. We can’t say for sure if it’s accurate or not, but it may be on the high side.” Elsewhere, the blog page at https://tabloidcorrections.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/did-the-telegraph-make-up-statistics-on-the-peoples-vote-march-attendance/ quotes Ian Lister, Information Governance Manager at the GLA: “No debrief document was produced by the GLA and I can confirm that we do not hold any debrief document.” It appears that the 250,000 figure… Read more »

Peter Walker
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Peter Walker

The Iraq 2003 march was indicated to be well in excess of 1.25 million after the Guardian commissioned and ICM poll to find out how many households had had representatives on the march. 1.25 million was the number of households who contributed. Of course, many households contributed more than one marcher (5 of us went from our house) so a figure in excess of 2 million is very realistic.