For connoisseurs of political machinations there’s really nothing quite like the Brexit process. For as we enter the end game here it’s becoming ever more apparent that there’s no actual time left for anything other than a no deal Brexit. Which isn’t at all what those who have been planning and plotting were intending, not at all. But it is what they’ve managed to corner themselves into.
Take this latest from Theresa May:[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””] MPs will be able to have a final vote on the Brexit deal by 12 March, Prime Minister Theresa May has said. Speaking as she travelled to an EU-Arab League summit in Egypt, Mrs May ruled out holding a so-called “meaningful vote” on her deal this week. But she said “positive” talks with the EU were “still ongoing” and leaving on 29 March was “within our grasp”. Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer said delaying the vote was “the height of irresponsibility”. And the European Parliament’s Brexit co-ordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, accused Mrs May of “kicking the can down the road”. He said the delay would cause “crippling uncertainty” and was “one of the most reckless” decisions he had seen in politics. [/perfectpullquote]
So, think this through. The vote is going to be on May’s deal. She doesn’t think she’ll win the vote as yet, so she’s delaying it. Fair enough, she’s the PM, she controls the Commons timetable.
But what happens if that deal is voted down? That being what she’s relying upon of course. Get that late and it’s either her deal or no deal. For again, think this through. We leave on March 29.
What’s that? But obviously no one wants that? Well, OK, there are a few like me looking forward to it but OK, near all in politics don’t want that. So, what are they going to do about it?
After Gina Miller and all the rest have fought their court cases, passed motions and had votes, we have a situation where we need a majority in favour of whatever is to happen. If we don’t have a majority in favour of something then we default to the, well, the default. And as it currently is that default is leaving on March 29 with no deal.
No, really, we need a majority to vote for something else for something else to happen. A vote of 650 to none against no deal doesn’t cut it. We must have the positive vote in favour of whatever.
And there’s simply no whatever that does gain a majority in the Commons. Thus a likely outcome is that leave with no deal.
Yes, sure, this pleases me. But here’s what is necessary for it not to happen. So, what deal is it that will gain a majority? Anyone? Bueller?